On the Duration of Civil War

 

 

This article explores empirically the duration of civil war. It relates the duration of civil war to two alternative models of conflict and cull testable hypotheses from the case study literature on civil war. Using a comprehensive data set on large-scale violent civil conflicts covering the 1960-2000 period, a wide range of hypotheses is tested by means of hazard function regressions. The results show that the duration of conflict is systematically related to both structural conditions prevailing prior to conflict and to circumstances during conflict. The key structural characteristics that lengthen conflict are low per capita income, high inequality, and a moderate degree of ethnic division. The key variable characteristics that shorten conflict are a decline in the prices of the primary commodities that the country exports, and external military intervention on the side of the rebels. [via]
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~ball0144/warduration_o...

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